In 2018, a new construction starter home in the city of Missoula could be purchased for under $199,000. Today, those same homes are listed for $475,000. Rents for houses and apartments have similarly increased in the last six years. The housing system in Missoula is broken. But why?Why is housing so expensive in Missoula County? And what can be done about it?
Nobody likes sprawl. Sprawl evokes images of lifeless, cookie-cutter neighborhoods, traffic and long commutes. Missoula, aiming to be true to its character, set its mind as a community to avoid sprawl through a “Focus Inward” policy. That policy, with the best of intentions, sought to focus city and county investments in infrastructure inside of the existing urban service area.
While the Focus Inward policy of 2015 aimed to discourage sprawl and promote concentrated, walkable neighborhoods, it has faced challenges in practice. Expensive, scarce infill land and zoning regulations have hindered the creation of affordable housing options within the urban core, exacerbating the housing shortage.
As demand for housing grew with a growing population, Missoula got further and further behind on available options. With decreased supply and increased demand, prices went through the roof. Home ownership (and even the ability to rent a home) has now been put out of reach for many Missoulians. Higher construction costs and increased borrowing costs have certainly not helped, either.
There isn’t an instant fix for the housing trap that we’re in currently.
But, concrete steps can be taken now to re-open the gate to attainable housing and home ownership in Missoula in the very near future.
It starts by recognizing that Focus Inward is a great overarching goal for the Missoula community. Concentrated, walkable neighborhoods are more economically sustainable and have been demonstrated to improve health and happiness levels for residents that live in them. That has been the aim of the Focus Inward policy.
The problem is, we’re too far behind on housing to catch up relying solely on a Focus Inward policy. Infill land is too expensive, often selling for more than $35/SF (roughly $135,000 per city lot). While this elevated land cost can be spread out over multiple units by building upward, living in apartments is not for everyone.
Many Missoulians want to own their own house on their own piece of ground, even if it is small to start. It’s the entry point to physical ownership in their community. But how do you do that if a 2 bedroom, 1 bath, 800 SF home on a 0.036 acre parcel is going for almost seven times the median household income for Missoula county? Starter homes, affordable by median income earners, are virtually impossible to build in the city core as it stands today.
A new, compact town center built near an existing employment hub will augment infill housing efforts elsewhere in the city and county. By creating a large amount of new housing supply in the county, rent and sale prices are much more likely to level off in Missoula. A price-hike breather would give the average Missoulian a chance to catch up and gain access to quality housing at more reasonable prices.
It’s no secret that land is cheaper further from the city core. A new and greatly improved County zoning ordinance provides the regulatory framework to create a wide variety of housing types on different lot sizes in densities that spread out infrastructure costs. Those two elements combine to pave the way for for-sale and rental housing that can be built at prices approachable for the typical household income. More housing options in greater supply are good for renters and buyers alike.
No. Developing on the periphery does not need to mean sprawl. Missoula County’s Neighborhood Residential (NR) zoning districts require certain development characteristics that increase the number of housing units that can comfortably be accommodated on each acre of land. Neighborhood Residential zoning requires a mix of homes and neighborhood-scale professional and commercial services. This zoning policy, coupled with good design, results in the sort of compact, walkable, mixed-use neighborhoods that Missoula seeks to create in the urban core through its Focus Inward policy.
Compact development around a town center also preserves open space. These are the opposite of ‘bedroom communities’ that consume large amounts of acreage and green space for cookie-cutter, McMansion style homes.
By creating mini-towns on the periphery with a grocery store, hardware store, restaurants and personal services close to new neighborhoods and existing job centers, the number of vehicle miles traveled (VMTs) to and from the neighborhood decreases. Decreased VMTs means less traffic congestion pressure on our roads and safer streets and trails for walking and biking.
Missoula County has seen its population grow by over 80% since 1975. That trend shows no signs of slowing down. With current projections indicating a need for over 8,000 new housing units by 2040, it's important that the community plans this growth now so that it is ready and not just reacting to population pressures in the future.
How do we intelligently plan for that growth? By increasing the number of people that are comfortably served by each acre of newly developed land, we will create a diverse range of housing options while preserving open and green space. In the process, we will create living options that are more affordable and accessible.
Access to housing, whether for sale or for rent, isn’t a ‘city problem’ or a ‘county’ problem. It is a Missoula problem. It must be tackled together. The Wye is rapidly becoming a significant employment hub. According to Esri and the American Community Survey, over 1,500 jobs exist at or near the Wye already. More are coming every month as new manufacturers and employers move into the industrial sites near the Wye.
The more the Wye job center grows, the more the demand for housing will increase in the immediate area. With companies actively seeking land for new facilities, the Wye area stands out as one of the few areas of the county capable of hosting enough housing to support growth. Importantly, this area can do so at a land price point that offers hope for housing attainability and access to ownership.
A big reason for this is that the Wye has City of Missoula wastewater coverage for a portion of the area currently. More importantly, it has the ability to expand to cover just about all of the Wye area. Municipal scale water (though privately owned, currently) service exists north of I-90 with a new system planned to cover the area south of I-90 as well.
Additionally, the Wye has several tracts of land that do not contain sensitive wildlife habitat or soils of local importance.
Significant transportation corridors exist to and from the Wye along Interstate 90, US Hwy 93 and Hwy 10 / Broadway. Commuting from the Wye interchange to Van Buren St takes approximately 10 minutes at highway speeds on I-90.
The typical development pattern is that people (i.e., housing) follow jobs. Retail follows people. Identify where the jobs are located, and where they are likely to grow, then build housing and then retail close to those job centers. This results in the best use of limited road resources and the highest quality of life for Missoulians.
The Wye already has a large number of jobs with more coming. It makes sense to plan for and build a town center with housing and retail services near this up and coming job center.
Without intentional planning, the Wye area risks falling victim to unmanaged sprawl. Without a dedicated town center development, the Wye will develop in a piecemeal fashion that strains infrastructure, consumes greenspace, and diminishes the Missoula valley’s character. The alternative to a planned town center development is a future where essential services are fragmented, traffic congestion worsens, and natural resources are depleted.
Additionally, sprawl bankrupts municipalities. Sprawl creates large infrastructure maintenance liabilities without generating enough tax value per acre to pay for them. Compact, mixed use development typically generates property tax revenues in excess of ongoing infrastructure maintenance costs. By implementing smart growth and sustainability plans, the Wye can avoid these pitfalls while helping Missoula county get housing costs under control.
The 2024 Missoula County Housing and Community Development Survey underscores the community’s understanding of the critical need for affordable housing and improved infrastructure. Respondents highlighted the importance of expanding and improving infrastructure, increasing the supply of affordable housing, and supporting business development and job creation. A new town center at the Wye directly addresses these priorities, aligning with community needs and aspirations.
In addition, through engagement with thousands of Missoulians during the County's last Land Use Element (Growth Policy) update in 2019, consensus was reached that the Wye is the area most suitable for urbanization within Missoula County. Missoula is full of passionate residents, all of whom have opinions. It is rare for the opinions of community members to align as strongly as they did during this public process.
Efficient Resource Use
Town center development patterns allow for the efficient use of land and resources. They generate more tax revenue per acre than low density sprawl, usually resulting in a net surplus to the municipality.
Economic Vitality
Developing the Wye as a town center supports economic growth by attracting businesses and industries. This stimulates local economies and provides residents with more job opportunities close to home. A wider base of employment makes for a resilient local economy.
Sustainable Growth
Planned town centers emphasize sustainable practices, preserving Missoula's natural beauty while meeting the community's needs. By incorporating green spaces and sustainable infrastructure, we can create an environmentally responsible growth model that benefits all residents and is accessible to all.
Improved Connectivity
A town center at the Wye can reduce vehicle miles traveled (VMTs) by offering residents access to amenities, services, and employment within a short distance of their home and work. This reduces traffic congestion, lowers emissions, and promotes healthier, more active lifestyles.
To support anticipated growth at the Wye, strategic investments in infrastructure are essential. The ongoing Wye Infrastructure Study initiated by the County in 2022 has highlighted the necessity for enhanced intersections and modernized water and sewer systems. These types of improvements would ensure that the area can accommodate future growth without compromising the quality of life for current and future residents.
Missoula County has been preparing for development of the Wye for decades. From extending City wastewater to the area in the 2000’s, to initial planning for a regional water system over a decade ago, to the formation of Targeted Economic Development Districts at the Wye in 2020 and 2023, the Wye has been the logical next location for smart growth in Missoula County.
The planned development in the Wye area suggests the potential for it to become a significant urban center, possibly even incorporating as a separate city. Strategic planning today lays the groundwork for a well-supported, vibrant urban area that can adapt to future needs.
By focusing on sustainable communities, like Grass Valley, we can address housing shortages, stimulate economic growth, and preserve the quality of life that makes Missoula unique.
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